소득불균등을 증가시키는 양적완화?소득불균등을 증가시키는 양적완화?
Posted at 2012. 9. 17. 11:45 | Posted in 경제학/2008 금융위기Worse, the Fed’s campaign is increasing inequality. The hope is that quantitative easing will drive up stock prices, making consumers feel richer and spend more. But this glow is felt mainly by families in the top 10 per cent of incomes, because they own 75 per cent of all stocks. Meanwhile, the poor are hit hardest by rising commodity prices: families in the bottom 20 per cent of incomes spend 8 per cent of their income on petrol and 30 per cent on food, while the top 20 per cent spend just 2 per cent on petrol and 5 per cent on food. This link between monetary easing and inequality is a byproduct of the new liquidity link between stock prices and oil prices.
As the Fed started to hint at QE3 a few weeks ago, oil and food prices started to rally again. Fed officials used to cite strong demand in the developing world to explain commodity price inflation, but with growth slowing in emerging markets, supply-and-demand dynamics cannot explain this rally. Trading fuelled by easy money can, however: actively traded commodities such as gold, copper and coal are selling at prices 20-65 per cent higher than the marginal cost of production. Prices of less actively traded commodities, such as steel and iron ore, are falling.
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Meanwhile, the US is pushing a third round of quantitative easing, which could be more counterproductive than the first two, since oil and food prices are now dangerously close to levels that have acted as a tipping point for the global economy in the past. Some economists trace oil and food prices to non-monetary factors such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and drought conditions. Maybe. But at this point, abandoning QE3 would do more good than pushing it, because dropping it would lead to a fall in oil and food prices. That would be equivalent to a significant tax cut for the middle class and would act as a true stimulus for the global economy.
Ruchir Sharma. "For true stimulus, Fed should drop QE3". <the Financial Times>. 2012.09.10
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