기대Expectation가 경제에 미치는 영향기대Expectation가 경제에 미치는 영향

Posted at 2012.09.18 11:52 | Posted in 경제학/2008 금융위기


美 연방준비위원회(FRB or Fed)의 3차 양적완화(QE3)에서 발표에서 주목해야 하는 건


If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. (...)


To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.


http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120913a.htm

FOMC statement – 13 Sept 2012


경제가 침체의 길에서 벗어나더라도 현재의 통화정책-0%~0.25%대의 초저금리-를 적절한 시간까지 유지하겠다고 밝히고 있다. 이 발언은 미국경제가 유동성 함정에 빠지는 것을 방지할 뿐 아니라, "경제가 완전히 회복될 때까지, FRB가 할 수 있는 모든 것을 하겠다" 라는 신호를 보낸 것이다.


Derek Thompson이 지적하듯이, FRB는 경제위기에서 벗어나기 위한 모든 것을 할 수는 없다. 가계부채 문제·유럽경제위기·신흥국 시장의 침체·교육 질의 저하 등등. 그러나 기대 인플레이션 변화 등을 통해 경제가 회복될 수 있다는 자신감을 시장참여자에게 심어줄 수 있다.


the Fed doesn't control all the variables for growth. High household debt, a weak global economy, and awful residential investment are all contributing to our economic drought.


The Federal Reserve doesn't have explicit answers for these problems. Unlike Congress, it cannot send checks to families in the mail to raise income, or increase spending for defense contractors to raise employment. Instead, its policies can change expectations to encourage families and businesses to invest with confidence. By raising inflation expectations, QE can give the stock market a boost, and by lowering long-term interest rates it can encourage families to buy houses. 


(...)


Two weeks ago, Michael Woodford, a monetary economist, presented a very celebrated and wonky paper making a simple point.  The Federal Reserve's greatest power isn't the ability to buy bonds. It's the ability to make promises. 


In a world where the Fed makes stimulus contingent on bad economic news, it creates a start-stop psychology for businesses. When a jobs report is bad, people expect more QE. But when a jobs report is good, people expect less QE. That's weird! In an ironic way, it makes good economic reports bad for the long-term economy because it makes the Fed less likely to offer further support.


Today's announcement changes that. Bernanke essentially said: I'm going to keep my foot on the gas even after the economy starts to recover. Good economic reports or bad, the Federal Reserve will be working to keep interest rates low "for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens." We don't know what impact this will have on the housing and jobs market. But we're all about to learn the value of a Ben Bernanke promise.


http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/09/qe3-the-feds-new-stimulus-is-a-monster-but-how-will-it-help-the-economy/262351/

Derek Thompson. "QE3: The Fed's New Stimulus Is a Monster, but How Will It Help the Economy?". <the Atlantic>. 2012.09.13



또한, FRB는 1·2차 양적완화 당시 채권 매입 규모와 기간을 명시했던 것과 달리 무제한unlimited 채권 매입 방식을 쓰겠다고 밝힘으로써 "경제회복을 위해 우리가 할 수 있는 모든 것을 하겠다" 라는 신호를 보내고 있다. 무제한이라는 단어가 시장 투자자에게 미치는 심리적인 영향은 무시할 수 없다.


There are two key innovations here, both aimed at altering expectations. First is the commitment to open-ended bond purchases. Last week, the European Central Bank put its unlimited capacity to print money to bear on the euro crisis by promising to buying peripheral country bonds with no “ex ante quantitative limit”.  The Fed has done the same thing, though in the cause of boosting output rather than saving the euro. Do not underestimate the psychological impact on investors of "unlimited."


http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/09/federal-reserve-launches-qe3

"The power of positive thinking". <The Economist>. 2012.09.13




물론, 사람들의 기대Expectaion을 변화시키는 방법이 효과를 볼 수 있을지 의문을 표하는 목소리도 존재한다.

일반적인 사람들은 FRB가 무슨 발표를 하는지 별로 관심이 없을 뿐더러, 그것이 무엇을 의미하는지 이해하지 못하기 때문에 미래 경제에 대한 기대Expectation을 변화시키지 않을 것이라고 말한다.


But here is the problem with the applicability of this philosophical thought experiment.  In the real world, very few people are really paying much attention to the Fed and its illustrious Chairman, much less forming their expectations in the light of his words. If you work in an ordinary place of business, filled with a broad cross section of folks, try asking a few random co-workers what they thought of Ben Bernanke’s press release or press conference on Wednesday.  And for those among them who listened, and can say something non-vague about it, go on to ask them how they are changing their behavior in response.


http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/09/shamanistic-economics.html

Dan Kervick. "Shamanistic Economics". <New Economic Perspective>. 2012.09.13


그렇지만, 시장의 많은 부분은 이른바 큰 손Big Players들이 좌지우지 하고 있다. Big Players들의 기대를 변화시키고 이것이 주식·부동산 시장의 활성화를 불러온다면, 많은 사람들에게 "경제가 회복되고 있다"라는 구체적인 신호를 보낼 수 있게 된다. 



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